Did Alexi Giannoulias Weather the Storm?

Politico's Ben Smith ponders:

An Illinois Democrat notes that Alexi Giannoulias appears to have survived a wavelet of negative ads over the past month, appearing to gain a bit on Mark Kirk even as he was outspent nearly 5-to-1 on the air this summer.

According to the filings, the total spending against Giannoulias — by Kirk and two outside groups — was more than $650,000, including $350,000 from Kirk and the balance from the National Chamber of Commerce and the Committee for Truth in Politics.

Giannoulias has barely spent at all, laying out just $135,000 on the air over two months.

One possible interpretation: His negatives — particularly the failure of his family bank — are so thoroughly well known that there's nothing an attack ad can do to him.

One other point to add here: Not only does it look like Alexi Giannoulias has gotten through a summer of blistering attacks without withering in the polls, Republican Mark Kirk has fallen close to 3 points in the polls since the spring despite the fact that Giannoulias was saving his cash for the fall. It turns out, embellishing a military record only to subsequently tell reporters that you "misremembered it wrong," then additionally having claims about one's teaching records called to question aren't particularly endearing to voters. A real shock, I know. So for now, it looks like the Republicans have yet another race on their hands that they thought would have been put away by now -- exactly the kind of race they can't afford to lose if they hope to retake the Senate this fall.