GOPer Trailing by 23% in District McCain Won 61-35

With Charlie Cook now all but predicting a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives, one would presume that they would be in a solid position to retake a seat now held by a freshman Democrat in a district John McCain carried by a whopping 61 percent to 35 percent margin (and in which John Kerry and Al Gore both received less than 30 percent of the vote). Yet GOP polling out of Idaho's first congressional district not only shows the Republicans not to be competitive, but the party's nominee actually to be trailing by a margin in excess of 20 percentage points.

[Republican pollster Greg Strimple, polling for the Idaho Hospital Association] also surveyed the 1st Congressional District race between incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick and Republican challenger Raul Labrador, showing Minnick with a 52 percent to 29 percent lead.

The margin of error on this polling is high -- plus or minus 7 percentage points -- but Democrat Walt Minnick's lead is nonetheless statistically significant.

This polling doesn't necessary augur well for Democrats in potentially competitive races outside of this district considering that Minnick is among the most conservative members of the party's caucus, voting against the stimulus, cap and trade, and healthcare reform bills.

That said, this is a district that the Republicans should be winning, or at be competitive in. They aren't, and that says a great deal about their ability -- or possibly their inability -- to retake the House this fall.