No 2012 GOPer Tops 35 Percent Versus Obama

In the latest round of Politico's national polling, Barack Obama trails an unnamed Republican opponent (albeit within the survey's 2.4 percent margin of error) by a 40 percent to 38 percent spread. But here's the thing: once you name that Republican, Obama surges into the lead with no Republican cracking the 35 percent marker.

• Barack Obama 43 percent / Mike Huckabee 35 percent
  
• Barack Obama 42 percent / Mitt Romney 33 percent
  
• Barack Obama 50 percent / Sarah Palin 33 percent
  
• Barack Obama 42 / Tim Pawlenty 23 percent
  
• Barack Obama 43 percent / Haley Barbour 21 percent

It's not just the head-to-head numbers that bear out the President's current strength. At present, Obama holds a respectable 51 percent favorable rating (with 28 percent rating him very favorably) along with a 46 percent unfavorable rating. Compare that with Palin's inverted 35 percent favorable/57 percent unfavorable spread, Romney's 29 percent favorable/33 percent unfavorable rating, Pawlenty's 11 percent favorable/17 percent unfavorable breakdown, and Barbour's even worse 10 percent favorable/18 percent rating. Indeed, only Huckabee comes out with his head above water, with his 33 percent favorable rating topping his 31 percent unfavorable rating. In other words, Obama's favorables are at least 16 percentage points better than those of any of his potential GOP competitors. This is, in no small part, because many of these Republicans are unknown. But considering that all but one of these politicians have greater unfavorables than favorables, and the one who is in positive territory is only so within the margin of error, the GOP can't be giddy. To paraphrase Ezra Klein, Obama's situation is akin to the old joke about two guys being chased by the bear: Obama doesn't have to outrun the bear, he just has to outrun the other guy -- which he is doing right now.