A Real Race in Alaska

The Republicans appear to have done all they could to make the race for the Senate seat they're defending in Alaska this fall competitive. Here's the latest data from Public Policy Polling:

Joe Miller's surprise victory in the Alaska Republican Senate primary has given Democrats at least a marginal opportunity for a pick up this fall, although that will fade if Lisa Murkowski stays in the race for the general as the Libertarian candidate.

Miller leads Scott McAdams 47-39. McAdams is counteracting several of the trends causing Democrats trouble across the country this year. He's running even with independents at 42% and he's benefiting from a more unified party, getting 81% of the Democratic vote while just 73% of Republicans are committed to Miller. In most states that equation would be enough for the lead but in Alaska, where there's an 18 point Republican party identification advantage, it leaves McAdams running behind.

Republican Joe Miller's numbers are simply horrendous: 52 percent of voters statewide (including 54 percent of Independents in the state) view him unfavorably, while just 36 percent view him positively.

Democrat Scott McAdams isn't well known across the state -- 53 percent of respondents said they didn't know enough about him to give him a favorable or unfavorable rating -- but his numbers are at least not bad (if also not overwhelming) at 23 percent positive/24 percent negative. Yet even with most voters not knowing McAdams, he still starts off a general election against Miller (should Miller emerge from a final count of the GOP primary) in a competitive position -- more than could have been said of the race just a week ago.

[UPDATE at 10:13 AM]: For those interested, the PPP survey shows Miller also narrowly leading a three-way race, 38 percent to 34 percent for Murkowski and 22 percent for McAdams.