If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can't count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney.These numbers aren't terribly surprising. They exemplify the same kind of sentiment found in the recent Vanity Fair/60 Minutes polling, which showed a whopping 59 percent of Americans -- including a significant 40 percent of Republicans -- saying they didn't think Palin has what it takes to be an effective President.
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Among voters who say they support the goals of the Tea Party only 31% want Palin to run and even with ones who consider themselves to be active members of the Tea Party there are still only 42% who think she should make the leap.
But these numbers also point to another item: Palin isn't running for President. Yes, Palin is going to Iowa. Yes, she's speaking of national issues. But Palin can see the writing -- that GOP voters, while they love her, won't vote for her.
And it goes even beyond that. Palin has a nice thing going. She's making money. She has the establishment media hanging on her every word. While this requires her to make noises about running -- for what other pretense would the media cover her? -- in the end she won't be able to keep up her dog and pony show if she decides to fully enter campaign mode.
So whether it's the veto from the GOP primary electorate, or the monetary veto, I just don't see Palin making a White House bid any time soon.
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