Monday, September 20, 2010

Boxer Looks Stronger in CA-Sen

The California Senate race is the type of race the GOP is going to have to win -- or at least force the Democrats to excessively spend on -- if they hope to retake the chamber come November. But Public Policy Polling throws a bit of cold water on the GOP's hopes to knock off incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer:
A lot of Senate races are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats right now but California is not one of them. PPP's newest poll there finds Barbara Boxer continuing to hold onto a 50-42 lead over Carly Fiorina.

Republicans showed in Massachusetts they could win in a state as blue as California but Carly Fiorina isn't proving to have nearly the appeal to Democratic and independent voters that Scott Brown did. Fiorina is winning independents 50-38, a solid margin but well short of the 32 point advantage Brown achieved with those folks against Martha Coakley. And Fiorina is winning only 11% of Democrats, barely half of the 19% Brown got.
According to PPP, Republican Carly Fiorina's net negatives are actually quite a bit worse than those of Boxer: -8 percent, versus +0 percent. In a blue state -- California is one of the few polled by PPP where Barack Obama's numbers are in positive territory -- that's just not likely to cut it for the GOP. Which again begs the question, how is the GOP going to get control of the Senate without winning in California (or at least keeping it close)?

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