Closing the Enthusiasm Gap

I'm on the record expressing skepticism that "enthusiasm" is the best gauge of whether or not someone is going to vote in the upcoming elections (I'm not particularly "enthusiastic" to cast a ballot in an election in which the Democrats are on track to lose seats, but I'm still going to vote). But inasmuch as enthusiasm is the metric the establishment media is fixated on, it's worth noting that the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democratic enthusiasm on the rise:

With Election Day exactly five weeks away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that the battle for control of Congress has tightened, as key Democratic-leaning demographic groups are expressing more enthusiasm about the upcoming midterms.

Among likely voters, Republicans now hold a three-point lead in the generic-ballot test for control of Congress, down from their nine-point lead last month.

According to the survey, African-American and Hispanic voters are beginning to engage more than they had earlier in the cycle, while younger voters are still by and large tuned out. But the Democrats may yet have a remedy for their base's despondency, as Marc Ambinder notes.

In 1994, when Republicans regained control of Congress, only about 35 percent of Americans could vote before Election Day. In 2010, seven in ten Americans enjoy that privilege. If Democrats are able to hold the House, they'll have early voters to thank. Democratic strategists credit the party's sophisticated vote banking strategy with its three special election wins this year.

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A good early vote program is both art and science. But Democrats find it undeniably effective, and whatever else the DNC has done since Obama became president, it has kept its lists current. And that means that its Early Vote programs will be formidable.

The White House and the DNC believe that the higher the percentage of ballots cast early, the more of a chance they'll have to limit Republican gains.

Having worked elections in Oregon, where all balloting is conducted via mail (in effect an all-early voting state), I have seen first hand the impact the system can have on GOTV. Parties, and their candidates' campaigns, get running daily updates of who has -- and hasn't -- turned in their ballots. Based on this information, campaigns can dutifully work even their unenthusiastic supporters to ensure they turn out -- if not on one of the early voting days, then on the next.

Early voting isn't a panacea. Even if a party can get a voter to the polls, there's no telling who that voter will support. That said, considering most indications suggest that the Democrats aren't losing supporters to the GOP so much as their supporters are somewhat disinclined to vote, the party's early vote system could yield real benefits.