Thursday, September 23, 2010

A Democratic Comeback in the Making?

Josh Marshall sees some movement in the generic congressional ballot. Taking a look at the Pollster.com trend estimate, it looks like he may be right:



Place the sensitivity on high -- more able to pick up trends, but more likely to follow statistical noise -- the tightening is even more clear:



This, of course, makes intuitive sense: While Democratic voters have largely been unenthusiastic about the midterms, as election day nears and the prospect of a radical Republican takeover of Congress becomes more likely, they are tuning in more and more. But we'll have to wait at least a while to see if this is a genuine trend or just statistical noise.

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