GOP and Dem Polls Agree Freshman Dem Leads in R+4 District

Charlie Cook rates the race in New York's 13th congressional district, where freshman Democrat Mike McMahon must face an electorate that tends to lean about 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, in the category of races that are currently competitive (a "leans Democrat" distinction, to be precise). It's a district that, prior to reports that Vito Fossella had been cited for a DUI and had fathered a child out of wedlock (which led to a flip to the Democrats in 2008), had been in Republican hands for a decade and a half. It's the type of district the GOP is going to have to win -- or at least be extremely competitive in -- if it wants to retake the House in November. Yet two new polls, one from the Democrats and one from the Republicans, concur that McMahon leads by a sizable margin.

Rep. Mike McMahon (D), a freshman serving in a conservative district, was supposed to be among the most endangered New York Democrats this cycle.

But the Staten Island lawmaker released an internal poll Thursday suggesting that his contest against GOP challenger Michael Grimm won't live up to those expectations.

McMahon leads Grimm 51 percent to 33 percent with 16 percent undecided, according to a Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters conducted Sept. 19 to 22.

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Confronted with the McMahon poll this afternoon, the National Republican Congressional Committee released to Roll Call its own internal poll showing that McMahon's lead is just 8 points -- 46 percent to 38 percent.

Can the GOP retake the House if it doesn't win in NY-13? Probably. But do the Democrats' chances of holding on to the chamber increase if they are able to take this one off the list of seriously contested races? Most definitely.