The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows the candidates tied with 45% of the vote each. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.According to columnist Jon Ralston, this is the first public survey on the race to show Harry Reid at 50 percent, which he calls "not insignificant." Reid's numbers, in fact, have jumped a whopping 14 points in just 3 months, a remarkable turn around not only considering the tough position Reid has been in as both party leader and swing state Senator but also given the apparently rough environment for Democrats.
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When leaners are included in the new totals, Reid attracts 50% of the vote, while Angle picks up 47%. Two weeks ago, Angle held a small 50% to 48% edge over Reid among leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
I heard a discussion on public radio earlier this week about how the fact that this race is so close is good news for Republicans, who had thought this race was lost. It was as if the commentators were on an entirely different planet, one in which it hadn't been thought for much of this cycle that Reid was done because he trailed for the first eight months this race was polled.
Regardless, Reid is now in as strong a position to be reelected as he has been at any point in the past year and a half -- which can't be anything but good news.
One factor many political pundits have failed to factor in is the changed electorate in NV from 2004. Contrary to popular belief, Reid's numbers had room to grow when this election cycle started, if for no other reason than the number of people who had moved to the state since 2004. Population is trending the other way now, but that's still a lot of new residents in NV.
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