How Much More is an Enthusiastic Vote Worth Than an Unenthusiastic One?

Over on Twitter last week I asked, "Has anyone statistically analyzed the correlation between self-described voter 'enthusiasm' and likelihood to vote?" The question is worth revisiting in light of the latest polling released by Gallup:

Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows the race tied among all registered voters. However, Republicans' continuing higher enthusiasm coupled with the usual GOP turnout advantage suggest a significant Republican edge in the nationwide vote for the U.S. House, and, in turn, significant Republican House seat gains.

Pollsters seem to assume that what they term "voter enthusiasm" is the (or at least a major) driving factor in predicting the outcome of elections. There is some merit to this theory; an enthusiastic voter may take less money, energy and time to turn out than an unenthusiastic voter, thus freeing up money, energy and time to turn out other voters -- in the aggregate adding to the vote total for a candidate.

On the other hand, is "enthusiasm" really the right measure by which to gauge whether someone is going to vote. If asked by a pollster, I don't know that I would say I am "enthusiastic" to vote; it appears as though the party I support is going to lose a great number of seats around the country this cycle, so why would I be "enthusiastic" to go to the polls? That said, even if I wouldn't call myself "enthusiastic," I'm still certainly going to vote. And I'd imagine that there are a great number of people with a similar outlook as me.

Of course there is a risk that Democratic voters in this category -- not enthusiastic because of the political environment, but still supporters of the party -- won't muster the energy to vote. The 1980 election saw Democratic voters in the West despondent about Jimmy Carter's apparent loss failing to vote in Senate elections, helping cost the party of a number of seats throughout the region.

Nonetheless, if the Democrats can get their voters to the poll, enthusiastic or not -- as they have done in a number of special elections in the past couple of years (including the special congressional election in Pennsylvania the GOP was supposed to win but didn't) -- the midterms just may not be as bad for the party as many pollsters project.