If Only the Electorate Were Registered, Not Likely Voters

CNN released a batch of Senate polling today. As The Hotline notes, the registered voter numbers look a whole lot different than the likely voter numbers. First, the registered voter data:

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D): 47 percent
Ken Buck (R): 44 percent

Delaware

Chris Coons (D): 59 percent
Christine O'Donnell (R): 34 percent

Pennsylvania

Joe Sestak (D): 45 percent
Pat Toomey (R): 45 percent

Wisconsin

Russ Feingold (D): 48 percent
Ron Johnson (R): 46 percent

Unfortunately for the Democrats, the likely voter data look a whole lot worse:

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D): 44 percent
Ken Buck (R): 49 percent

Delaware

Chris Coons (D): 55 percent
Christine O'Donnell (R): 39 percent

Pennsylvania

Joe Sestak (D): 44 percent
Pat Toomey (R): 49 percent

Wisconsin

Russ Feingold (D): 46 percent
Ron Johnson (R): 51 percent

On average, the Democrats run 2.5 percentage points worse among likely voters than they do among registered voters; the Republicans run 4.75 percentage points better. That means that across these CNN Senate surveys, the GOP performs a net 7.25 percentage points better among likely voters than it does among registered voters (and consequently the Democrats run 7.25 percentage points worse).

To an extent, this reflects assumptions of pollsters about voter turnout -- assumptions that may be right, but also may be wrong. It also suggests that if Democrats can turn out their voters, they can win. This is obvious, of course. But it's worth reiterating. If Democrats go to the polls, they win; if they don't, they lose. So doing something -- anything -- to fire up the base six weeks out from election day probably wouldn't be the worse idea for the party...