If the GOP hopes to pick up the combined 55 seats it lost in the 2006 and 2008 cycles, it still has a ways to go. Taking a look through the latest batch of GOP polling from the American Action Forum, I'm more surprised at how well a number of the incumbent Democrats are doing that at how poorly a few of them are.
Look at the polling out of Oregon's fifth congressional district (.pdf), for instance. It's a district I know quite well -- I ran a state legislative race there in 2006. Oregon 5 is a classic swing district, with George W. Bush carrying it twice and Barack Obama picking it up in 2008. It's chock full of conservative Democrats and Independents. While the seat has been in Democratic hands since 1996, it's the type of district you would expect the Republicans to perform well in given reports about the national political climate -- especially given that the Democratic incumbent is a freshman who voted for the stimulus, cap and trade, and healthcare reform. Yet according to this GOP polling, Democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader leads by an 8-point margin, 44 percent to 36 percent.
This isn't a good barometer for the 2010 midterms, you say, because even though it's a two-time Bush district it's not a district that the GOP relied upon for its majorities in the 2000s? Fine (though how the GOP would win more than 55 seats without winning this one is not so clear to me). Let's take a look at the data from New Mexico's first congressional district (.pdf), where freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich is seeking a second term. While this district tends towards the Democrats, leaning about 5 points more towards the party than the nation as a whole, before Heinrich no Democrat in 40 years had held the seat. This moderate district was exactly the type the GOP relied upon for years to keep its majority (the overwhelmingly red districts not being enough to hold control of the House). Given the national political climate and Heinrich's votes in favor of stimulus, cap and trade, and healthcare reform, one would expect the first-term Democrat to be trailing. Yet this GOP polling puts him up by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. How the GOP picks up 55 seats to get back to the position it was in before the 2006 midterms without winning this seat is also unclear to me.
Don't get me wrong, there are definitely some warning signs for the Democrats from this polling.
First term Democrat Anne Kirkpatrick of Arizona trails by a 47 percent to 41 percent margin (.pdf), first term Democrat Betsy Markey of Colorado trails by a 50 percent to 39 percent margin, second term Democrat Harry Mitchell trails by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin, and third term Democrat John Salazar of Colorado trails by a 51 percent to 43 percent margin (.pdf). But these four districts where the Democrats trail by noticeable margins -- and these are the only races polled in this batch where that's the case -- are all quite red districts, the type that the Republicans should easily win in a GOP-friendly cycle: the districts of Salazar and Mitchell lean 5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, and the districts of Kirkpatrick and Markey both lean 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.
All the other races polled show statistical dead heats -- obviously not great news for the Democrats, but also not terrible news given how brutal August has been for the party and that this is, as noted above, Republican polling. Indeed, I'm actually a bit surprised that, for instance, that second-term Democrat Jerry McNerney is running even in California's 11th district. McNerney was somewhat of a surprise winner for the Democrats in 2006 (he wasn't the party's favored candidate in the primary), defeating a deeply flawed GOP incumbent. He's the type of Democrat some might have assumed could have only won in the favorable 2006 cycle. Yet he's now running even in GOP polling in a district that George W. Bush carried twice with 54 and 53 percent of the vote. How is the GOP going to win back the House if it doesn't win a district like this?
To be clear, it's apparent to me, like anyone else, that this cycle is gearing up to be bad for the Democrats. I'm just not sold on the notion it's going to be near as bad as many would have us think.
[UPDATE at 2:03 PM]: A lot of good insight on the Oregon 5 numbers from torridjoe in the comments.
Apparently as much as 40% of the by-race polling has been from Rasmussen, so maybe the agenda is being quietly set for us and we're not noticing.
ReplyDeleteThe generic ballots don't look good at all, but I'm willing to figure the possibility that this is a weird environment, politically, with discontent erupting on both the far left and right. They're unpredictable this election, IMO.
Thanks for that poll in the 5th, where I live. Some very strange numbers in there:
96% are absolutely or very likely to vote? Yeah, right--that's barely an LV screen at all.
There's a 38-37 split on party preference, yet Schrader leads. Power of incumbency?
Bruun fails on "trustworthy/honest" in comparison to Schrader. I find Bruun to be a dishonest weasel, but it's interesting to me that others tend to share the opinion--or at least he's not known for it.
46% of the sample supports the Tea Party? That's basically every GOP and half the NAVs in that district.
Very old sample, only 21% under 50. I'd be willing to accept the 4% from the 18-29, but that middle group usually comes out better than that, doesn't it?
Interesting stuff. I have objectively been assuming Schrader would win, because he's a moderate Blue Dog, so to speak. These results bolster that outcome; he doesn't seem to have drawn the ire of either extreme at all.
There's a weird narrative going around (TJ nails it) about this district from folks who don't know much about it. Schrader is a longtime business owner (farm veterinarian!), county commissioner and state legislator who is very well-connected and respected.
ReplyDeleteBruun's a guy who inherited his granddaddy's construction business, ran for Congress in another district already and got whipped, and has usually been too lazy to go door-to-door for his legislative seat.
That, and his personality is a bit off-putting. The fake tan, the bleached teeth, daily workouts at the Mac Club in Portland....the guy does not fit the district, outside of the part he already represents in wealthy, suburban West Linn.
Beyond that, Schrader's sharp, direct, forthright and a talented fundraiser. I got a call from him yesterday asking me to round up some of my business-owner friends for an event with SBA administrator Karen Mills. I have a tough time saying "no" to the guy, because he really is an extremely valuable asset in Congress.
I predict that by the time ballots go out in the mail, Schrader's strolling to victory.
Harry Mitchell is toast. He voted for Obamacare, some of the TARP bailouts, and cardcheck. He votes with Pelosi and the Obama administration and ignores the nonstop Tea Party protests outside his office, he doesn’t represent his Republican-leaning district. He is completely bought and paid for by the unions (http://epaper.aztrib.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=RVZULzIwMDcvMDMvMTIjQXIwMzgwMQ==&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom) Any incumbent polling less than 50% at this point in the race is considered probably going to lose. The fact that it was a partisan poll doesn't matter - every generic poll from Gallup to Time has shown Democrats losing to Republicans in Congress losing by about the same margin. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
ReplyDelete