Potential Democratic Pickup in Florida

Not exactly sure how losing a GOP-held seat in a district that leans 5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole plays into the GOP's hopes for taking the House in November, but Democratic polling from Florida's 25th district doesn't look so good for the Republicans (h/t Daniel Nichanian):

Joe Garcia has a 4% lead over David Rivera, with 40% for Garcia, 36% for Rivera, 5% for Tea Party candidate Roly Arrojo, 1% for Whig Party candidate Craig Porter, and 18% undecided.After voters hear a series of positive messages about both candidates, Garcia increases his lead to 7%.Once voters hear negative arguments about both candidates, Garcia leads by 13%.

The usual caveats apply here, as this is Democratic polling commissioned by a candidate. That said, this is a race where the incumbent Republican decided to switch districts instead of facing Democrat Joe Garcia, who was reportedly coaxed into a second straight run after seeing favorable polling this spring, so it would certainly seem to be the case that private polling from the race also shows Garcia to be a formidable candidate.