McAdams Can Win

The Cook Political Report says that the Alaska Senate race is "not considered competitive at this point," placing it in the "likely Republican" category. So much for that.

After several rough weeks on the campaign trail, a new poll out of Alaska shows Republican Joe Miller has fallen to last place in the three-way Senate race.

A Hays Research Group poll released Thursday showed write-in candidates, presumably meaning Sen. Lisa Murkowski, in the lead with 34 percent, Democrat Scott McAdams with 29 percent and Miller with 23 percent. Murkowski is waging a write-in bid since losing the Republican primary to Miller.

Hay Research, unlike some of the other pollsters who have surveyed the race, is actually locally based and has been polling Alaska for years. That doesn't mean this poll is flawless, but it should grab folks attention; as Jon Karl of ABC News notes, Democrat Scott McAdams can win.

AK poll: McAdams 29%, Miller 23%, "write-in" 34%. McAdams can win this race with 29% b/c some write-ins will inevitably be tossed out.

What makes this poll even more remarkable is that although it shows Republican Joe Miller sinking in the wake of his private security arresting a journalist, the poll was in the field before voters had an opportunity to digest Miller's admission that he had lied about his improper use of government resources towards a political end.

Could Miller's numbers go down even further? It's definitely possible, though his 68 percent unfavorable rating in the poll may be a ceiling. Indeed, it's quite possible that that 23 percent core of supporters are the same type of people who made the determination in the Republican primary that they simply could not support incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski -- a determination that was only strengthened when Murkowski sought to split the GOP vote by running as a write-in.

So can McAdams win this year? As one famous Alaskan might say, "you betcha!"