Sestak Catches Up to Toomey in PA-Sen

Don't look now, but Democrat Joe Sestak has caught up to Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

You can put Pennsylvania Senate back in the toss up category. Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 46-45 in our newest poll of the race, erasing the 9 point deficit he had in an August PPP survey.

Toomey's support has remained stagnant over the last 2 months while Sestak's has gone up 10 points from 36% to 46%.

Public Policy Polling cites three factors as drivers behind the Sestak surge: a shrinking enthusiasm gap as Democratic voters become more engaged, increasing support for Sestak among Independents, and a more unified Democratic base. And with this survey in the mix, Sestak has not only caught Toomey in PPP polling, he has done so also in the Pollster.com sensitive trend estimate.

That trend couldn't look worse for the Republicans. And given that pre-election polling from Pennsylvania tends to underestimate Democratic support, this race may be a whole lot more winnable for Sestak than anyone thought possible.